Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 20.416717 22.252272 24.287665 26.734467 29.626993 32.978250 37.217116
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 17.611129 19.996732 22.841871 26.564382 31.435960 37.802504 47.155079
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 15.649329 18.286845 21.601949 26.229150 32.809801 42.383175 58.707076
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 14.232779 16.994991 20.609778 25.924422 34.036385 47.055583 72.915052
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 13.167062 15.994960 19.818400 25.690020 35.226818 52.016358 91.193072
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 12.337221 15.202517 19.184512 25.535459 36.448880 57.461516 115.930804
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 11.542881 14.373576 18.388576 24.979178 36.819198 61.388130 142.144574
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 11.260559 14.230538 18.567358 25.992351 40.265136 73.731196 225.823111
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 10.727587 13.675959 18.056794 25.753459 41.201537 80.594094 316.736990
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 10.326076 13.281406 17.751526 25.819819 42.785634 90.427268 519.751478
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 9.998888 12.971786 17.547600 26.032138 44.751804 103.253584 1129.610651
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 9.676828 12.646427 17.286164 26.094394 46.391212 116.789577 4602.558497
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 9.313091 12.240577 16.868367 25.819728 47.190602 128.388843 NaN
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 9.028870 11.942490 16.609148 25.829565 48.773208 146.529344 NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 8.726750 11.599291 16.247049 25.584442 49.606731 162.680213 NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 8.446753 11.276675 15.897810 25.324858 50.349276 180.601136 NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 8.195635 10.987843 15.588103 25.113819 51.203135 202.520555 NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 7.972925 10.734163 15.323795 24.971352 52.257629 230.857227 NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 7.710264 10.404060 14.903095 24.438165 51.892869 245.037259 NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 7.670766 10.436976 15.139229 25.415451 57.115020 364.179715 NaN
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 7.475296 10.202376 14.868773 25.185956 57.884142 425.563647 NaN
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 7.328374 10.042676 14.728054 25.250120 59.858264 552.247329 NaN
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 7.206622 9.919929 14.648877 25.454702 62.537476 796.743449 NaN